3/2/2022

Doubling in value: Paul highlights the extra risk of having all the money in one asset class. In the 10 years ending 2009, the S&P 500 declines in value, even including additional investments. Meanwhile, the more diversified 50/50 S&P/SCV doubled in value for the same period. In fact, almost every other portfolio doubled over that 10 year period.

The sequence of return can mean a $1.5 million difference.  Paul shows another situation (Tables C8 and C9) where two portfolios had almost the same compound rate of return, but one beats the other by about $1.5 million. It points to how important the sequence of return is. Use The Merriman Lifetime Investment Calculator to test different beginning dates to see the impact of different sequences of return.

Interestingly, the annual result of regularly adding new money seldom leaves the portfolio with less value than the previous year.  For example, in the case of the S&P 500, there were only 7 years out of 52 that the following year wasn’t higher than the last.  In the case of the 50/50 S&P/SCV, there were only 5 years that the following year wasn’t higher.

Hopefully, this knowledge will help you consider building different portfolio combinations with unique parts of your long-term investments.  For example, you could segregate one smaller account that is all small-cap value for the entire period, another in the U.S. 4 Fund Portfolio, and yet another in a Worldwide 4 Fund Portfolio.

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